Electrifying Fleets at a time of “Peak Uncertainty”: Interview with Stacy Noblet of ICF

Stacy Noblet has used her 2 decades of subject matter expertise in clean transportation to get the best out of fleets looking to electrify. Currently VP of Transportation Electrification at ICF, Noblet advises directly on all things EV and charging, helping clients in the utility and government space design and implement incentive and technical assistance programs. In this interview, Noblet outlines how resilience is now top of mind for fleets in the US and the important conversations they need to have with utilities to accelerate electrification.

How are recent grid stability issues, like the Iberian Peninsula blackout, reshaping how fleet operators think about charging infrastructure resilience?

A very timely topic. We have areas in the US that are experiencing the same challenges as the Iberian Peninsula like California, Texas. We're seeing that fleet operators prioritize resilience as they are designing charging infrastructure, incorporating microgrids or on-site storage options where feasible. At the recent ACT Expo and other industry meetings, resilience is front of mind  for a lot of fleets. Standard uptime is a key metric for fleets and that's driving their focus on resilience. Depending on the landscape and policy support, there's an opportunity to tap into emergency or resilience focused funding sources for fleets. A silver lining is that we've seen cases where, in locations where there have been natural disasters like wild fires, there's an opportunity to rebuild some of the existing infrastructure and accelerate the implementation without the red tape you might encounter otherwise.

Most fleets are electrifying in phases so it does give them an opportunity to test and refine strategies before fully scaling up. 

With the rapid growth of EV adoption, are fleets seeing major bottlenecks around charging site permitting, utility interconnections, or equipment supply chains in 2025?

The major bottlenecks vary based on the location of sites, how complex the project is and the timing of the project.

On the topic of location, there’s a lot of attention from the industry on permitting and interconnection processes. it can be pretty time-consuming and ultimately derail some fleet plans. Some may think that they've got everything worked out, but then approach the utility just to hear “let’s talk in 2-3 years”. That's a significant disruption. Wherever the fleet is on their journey, engaging early and often with their utilities is often the most effective way to help navigate. 

The earlier you have these conversations with utilities, the fewer surprises that fleets are going to face. More utilities are offering fleet advisory services and these provide an opportunity for that conversation to happen even when they're just starting. Through these services, the utilities want to learn what the fleet composition is, how likely it is to be electrified and what the infrastructure costs and implications are. Doing this in partnership with the utility doesn't necessarily eliminate the bottlenecks but it does help pave the way.

On the topic of interconnections,  we're seeing more interest in temporary charging solutions and load management strategies, specifically for medium to heavy duty fleet depots. There might be opportunities to spread the load differently or maybe they decide that a full upgrade isn't needed. It's an interesting area that's emerging and that I'm following.

Finally, there have also been supply chain bottlenecks, particularly during and coming out of COVID-19. That may again be more of a challenge depending on how changing tariffs impact the industry. Fleets that diversify their supply base are likely to be in a better position. It’s important to recognize that these are system level challenges. Ultimately, there are partnership opportunities for fleet operators, utilities and vehicle OEMs in this space.

For utilities the supply chain issues could also affect transformer timelines which can further exacerbate those interconnection bottlenecks. Interconnection timelines are definitely an issue but by no means something the industry’s glossing over. The Department of Energy was previously looking at this issue as are other coalitions hoping to at least find some near term solutions.

In light of evolving incentives and new emissions regulations, how are fleet operators balancing cost, compliance, and operational efficiency in their electrification plans?

Fleets want certainty and nothing about this current landscape is certain.  I've heard it be described as “peak uncertainty”. Regardless of whether it's policy that's driving the decision to electrify, additional cost savings can be very attractive.  It's a good idea for fleets to do their scenario planning and total cost of ownership calculations both with and without incentives that may apply to the vehicle or the charging infrastructure to see both cases.  Costs may come up or come down again but planning should be comprehensive and not dependent on one incentive source.

We’re working closely with our team to understand how fleets are balancing those considerations. Many fleets are taking a wait and see approach in this current landscape. Hopefully we get some certainty soon on the federal funding aspect. But keep in mind we will continue to have robust state programs and even utility incentives to help bolster operational savings.

How is AI changing EV charging and how it is either helping (or hindering) fleets in their electrification journey?

We’ve heard about fleets and fleet management companies leveraging AI to make the most of available data, such as helping to predict driver charging behavior and optimize charging schedules. 

While a bit more upstream, the growing use of AI is linked to rapidly increasing energy use (i.e., data centers and computing power); ICF projects a 25% growth in electricity demand by 2030. If not something utilities are planning for and managing, this growth has the potential to exacerbate fleet charging interconnection timelines. Yet another reason fleets should engage with their utilities as early as possible.

Are there any pain points in fleet charging that we're not currently talking about?

We should be talking more about load management as a real opportunity. Energy management strategies are still underutilized, but they offer significant potential to reduce costs, avoid demand charges, and improve infrastructure utilization. With the right technical solution and utility engagement, fleets can turn charging from a fixed cost into something far more dynamic. There may also be potential to reduce interconnection timelines through effective load balancing/management.

Another ongoing challenge is change management. Fleet electrification requires alignment across operations, finance, IT, and leadership, to name a few. The fleets making the most progress are investing in internal education and stakeholder buy-in. Without that cultural and organizational readiness, even the best-designed plans can stall.

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